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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-07-27T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-27T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17401/-1
CME Note: The source is an eruption from AR 2849 (~S15E25) in AIA 193, AIA 304, and EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-07-27T01:51Z, with darkening and bright post-eruptive arcades. It is associated with the long duration B1.9 class flare peaking at 2021-07-27T02:13Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-30T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

SIDC sent at 2021-07-28T14:54Z (Wednesday, July 28, 2021 10:54 AM)
expected arrival time: 2021-07-30T12:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 2
max_estimated_peak_K: 4
probability_of_arrival: 50

Lead Time: 45.10 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-07-28T14:54Z

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